Research on Carbon Peak and Carbon Neutrality Technological Pathways in the Chinese Papermaking Industry

keywords:pulp and paper industry  carbon dioxide emissions  scenario analysis and prediction  carbon peak and carbon neutrality  decarbonization pathway

Abstract:Against the backdrop of the dual carbon goals, the papermaking industry in China faces significant pressure to reduce emissions and lower carbon intensity. Based on historical data of energy consumption in the pulp and paper industry in China from 2000 to 2020, this study analyzed the current status of paper production and energy consumption in China. Two methods were employed to predict the growth trend of paper production in China, and three carbon dioxide emission accounting methods were compared. The study used an accounting method based on the industry's overall energy consumption and predicted the carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions of the Chinese papermaking industry from 2021 to 2060 under three scenarios. The study identified the timing for achieving carbon peak and proposed the measures for carbon neutrality. The results indicated that: (1) the CO₂ emissions of the Chinese papermaking industry in 2020 were 111.98 million tons. (2) Under low-demand, high-demand, and baseline scenarios, the papermaking industry is expected to achieve carbon peak during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period. (3) In 2060, under the three scenarios, CO₂ emissions from the papermaking industry will decrease by 11%-31% compared to the baseline year. However, there will still be emissions of 72-93 million tons, requiring reductions in fossil energy consumption at the source, increasing forestry carbon sequestration and utilization of Carbon Capture, Utilization and Storage (CCUS) technology, and taking measures such as carbon trading to achieve carbon neutrality.